Zbigniew Intelligence Brief

Supply Chain Intelligence That Proves Its Own Work

Every week brings new disruption signals. Which ones actually threaten your business? The Zbigniew Intelligence Brief cuts through noise with AI-powered analysis, transparent confidence levels, and falsifiable predictions. 75 forecasts logged. 71% verified hit rate. Every claim sourced. Every prediction has a deadline. Latest: [Day 30 Iran War Assessment](/day30-iran-war-assessment/).

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News Tells You What Happened. Intelligence Tells You What Happens Next.

Supply chain disruptions cascade. A strait closure becomes a sulfur shortage becomes a fertilizer crisis becomes a food price spike. By the time it makes the news, you're already exposed. We map the cascades before they arrive.

  • Generic risk reports cover industries. We map YOUR specific supply chain nodes, suppliers, and dependencies.
  • Predictions without deadlines are opinions. Every forecast we publish has explicit falsification criteria and a timeline.
  • Confidence levels on every claim: CONFIRMED, HIGH, MODERATE, LOW, SPECULATIVE. You always know what to trust.
  • Cascade modeling shows how one disruption propagates through your supply chain - step by step, with timelines.
  • We track our own accuracy publicly. No hiding behind vague language or after-the-fact reinterpretation.
News Tells You What Happened. Intelligence Tells You What Happens Next.

What You Get

Bi-weekly intelligence tailored to your exposure landscape.

Threat Landscape Update

New disruption signals across your industry. Sourced, verified, confidence-scored. Which ones are noise and which ones require action.

Your Exposure Map

How does this week's intelligence connect to your supply chain, suppliers, markets, geography? Concrete vulnerability assessment for your business.

Prediction Scorecard

Active forecasts tracked against deadlines. What confirmed? What shifted? What failed? Full transparency on hits and misses.

Cascade Walkthrough

Interactive model showing how a primary disruption flows through secondary and tertiary effects in your operations. Adjust inputs, see consequences.

Action Triggers

Which disruptions cross your threshold into 'requires action'? Specific trigger conditions and recommended responses. No analysis paralysis.

Monthly Strategy Call

30-minute call to discuss emerging signals, adjust monitoring focus, and review prediction accuracy. Direct access to the analyst.

23 Predictions. 70% Hit Rate. All Timestamped.

We don't ask you to trust our judgment. We publish predictions with deadlines and track them publicly. Here's a sample of verified calls.

  • Oil exceeding $100/barrel - called weeks early. Brent hit $100 March 8, peaked at $126.
  • Helium-semiconductor cascade - Qatar force majeure, spot prices up 70-100%, fabs on two-week clock.
  • NATO strategic fracture - first exercises without US in 77 years. Called months before it happened.
  • Kosovo parliament dissolution during NATO distraction - predicted, confirmed March 6.
  • Submarine cable sabotage continuation - predicted, Finnish police seized vessel Fitburg.
  • Fertilizer price cascade - called +50%, urea went from $516 to $683/mt in one week.
  • Wrong calls tracked too: Houthi 14-day timeline (wrong), Polymarket investigation (wrong on institutional response). Full scorecard available.
23 Predictions. 70% Hit Rate. All Timestamped.

Pricing

Intelligence scaled to your needs. All plans include full source documentation and prediction tracking.

Single Assessment

One-off deep analysis of a specific geopolitical event and its impact on your supply chain. Full cascade modeling, confidence ratings, actionable recommendations. Delivered in 2-3 business days. 2,500 EUR.

Intelligence Brief

Bi-weekly curated report covering your specific exposure landscape. Threat updates, prediction tracking, cascade modeling, action triggers. Monthly strategy call included. 1,500 EUR/month.

Premium Intelligence

Weekly briefings, real-time signal alerts, unlimited ad-hoc assessments, quarterly strategic review. For organizations where supply chain disruption has direct P&L impact. 3,500 EUR/month.

See the Intelligence Before You Buy

A 15-minute call tells us your exposure landscape. We outline what a custom Zbigniew Intelligence Brief would cover for your business. Or read our published analyses first and judge the quality yourself.

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